Infrastructure
Forecast Report
February 2026
28pages
Cold Chain Deficit Cost Modelling: Sub-Saharan Africa 2024–2028
A four-year cost projection model for the cold chain infrastructure deficit across Sub-Saharan Africa. The model quantifies the addressable market for integrated cold chain investment by region, commodity type, and processing stage — and identifies the 11 geographies where the cost-per-metric-ton of deficit is highest.
Key Findings
01Addressable market for cold chain intervention: $2.1B annually, growing at 8.4% YoY
02The deficit is widest in grain storage (22.3% loss rate) vs. produce (18.1%) and poultry (4.2%)
0311 geographies identified where IRR on cold chain infrastructure investment exceeds 22%
04East Africa represents 62% of the addressable market by investment thesis criteria